"Given the outsize imbalance between supply and demand for new homes, housing prices may need to fall an additional 20 percent to clear the market. "
-- Steve S. Roach for the NY Times, Head of Morgan Stanley Asia
My friend Matt just sent that to me. I'm not sure to which market specifically Mr. Roach is referring, but I know that SF prices have historically been inflated, and they've barely declined in recent years. So I'm almost 100% positive that his statements apply to SF. So.... no house for me... not yet, anyways. Not even the new LEED certified condos at Arterra here in soma. :(
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2 comments:
Graeme - I have to disagree on this. Certainly, SF may be in for a decline in housing prices, perhaps as much as Mr. Roach says; however, I don't think SF has the supply and demand issue that many other markets are having. I don't know the market very well, but it seems that SF has limited supply. I recall walking/driving through Seattle last July and seeing new condo after condo and wondering who would fill them at the prices they were asking. Anyway, just my thought. - GMB
There was an article in the Chronicle (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/03/09/REDHVBQ2L.DTL) that talks about the possibility of an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for housing in the next few years as a result of baby boomers retiring. Apparenlty people over 65 are more likely to sell a house than buy one.
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