So I have a bet with my friend Stefan, and the loser has to buy the winner $100 worth of cheese.
The bet is this: by 12:01am on January 1, 2009, the Sony PS3 will have a larger global install-base than Microsoft's Xbox360. Stefan's convinced that the PS3 will pull ahead, while I think that's total bunk and that it has no chance.
We're tracking progress of both at vgchartz.com. Current stats:
Stefan's argument is that the PS3 is a superior machine, and that as more games become available for it, it will clearly be the better choice of platform. It has a built in Blu-ray player, which is now the de facto standard for next-generation DVDs. And the PS3 has a global reach, whereas the Xbox360 seems unable to penetrate the Japanese market, which is clearly one of the world's largest gaming markets. He also argues that the Xbox360 has likely already peaked since it's been out for 2+ years, while the PS3 is still relatively new.
My argument is basically that the Xbox360 has too great a lead over the PS3 for the PS3 to catch up in the next 8 months. Most gamers interested in a next-gen console have already bought the 360. If they're going to buy a new console, it'll be the Wii first, then maybe the PS3. But the PS3 is expensive, and offers almost the exact same games as the 360. It's a better machine, but not significantly enough for people to invest $500+ in the new system and games. Especially as we enter an economic downturn!
People who are new to the gaming market will again pick up the Wii first, and then *maybe* a PS3 or a 360. But the 360 has a massive advantage due to its social networking aspect. The XboxLive online community is huge, and so new gamers are more likely to experience social pressure to buy a 360 to join their friends online than they are to join their friend's on Sony's network. And Microsoft has spent like 5 years getting that online community "right"... Sony's too new, and has too many kinks to work out yet. So 360 will have a social pressure keeping its sales rising, vs PS3.
And lastly, the PS3 was selling a lot of units initially because it cost roughly the same as a stand-alone Blu-Ray player, so all those folks who wanted a Blu-Ray player were incented to just buy the PS3 for the same price, and get a free gaming system in the process. But Blu-Ray player prices are dropping, and purists aren't going to spend extra money on a gaming system when they can buy a dedicated Blu-Ray player for less!
So in the end... PS3 doesn't stand a chance. Current tallies show that it's about 66% of the 360 right now. That's impressive, but its not going to grow fast enough to catch up to the 360 by year's end. And come January, I'm going to be enjoying some big-ass wheels of Gouda and Muenster. Mmmmm.
The bet is this: by 12:01am on January 1, 2009, the Sony PS3 will have a larger global install-base than Microsoft's Xbox360. Stefan's convinced that the PS3 will pull ahead, while I think that's total bunk and that it has no chance.
We're tracking progress of both at vgchartz.com. Current stats:
- Wii: 25.62 million
- 360: 18.84 million
- PS3: 12.52 million
Stefan's argument is that the PS3 is a superior machine, and that as more games become available for it, it will clearly be the better choice of platform. It has a built in Blu-ray player, which is now the de facto standard for next-generation DVDs. And the PS3 has a global reach, whereas the Xbox360 seems unable to penetrate the Japanese market, which is clearly one of the world's largest gaming markets. He also argues that the Xbox360 has likely already peaked since it's been out for 2+ years, while the PS3 is still relatively new.
My argument is basically that the Xbox360 has too great a lead over the PS3 for the PS3 to catch up in the next 8 months. Most gamers interested in a next-gen console have already bought the 360. If they're going to buy a new console, it'll be the Wii first, then maybe the PS3. But the PS3 is expensive, and offers almost the exact same games as the 360. It's a better machine, but not significantly enough for people to invest $500+ in the new system and games. Especially as we enter an economic downturn!
People who are new to the gaming market will again pick up the Wii first, and then *maybe* a PS3 or a 360. But the 360 has a massive advantage due to its social networking aspect. The XboxLive online community is huge, and so new gamers are more likely to experience social pressure to buy a 360 to join their friends online than they are to join their friend's on Sony's network. And Microsoft has spent like 5 years getting that online community "right"... Sony's too new, and has too many kinks to work out yet. So 360 will have a social pressure keeping its sales rising, vs PS3.
And lastly, the PS3 was selling a lot of units initially because it cost roughly the same as a stand-alone Blu-Ray player, so all those folks who wanted a Blu-Ray player were incented to just buy the PS3 for the same price, and get a free gaming system in the process. But Blu-Ray player prices are dropping, and purists aren't going to spend extra money on a gaming system when they can buy a dedicated Blu-Ray player for less!
So in the end... PS3 doesn't stand a chance. Current tallies show that it's about 66% of the 360 right now. That's impressive, but its not going to grow fast enough to catch up to the 360 by year's end. And come January, I'm going to be enjoying some big-ass wheels of Gouda and Muenster. Mmmmm.
1 comment:
XBL ftw!!!!11!
I see you've started Assassin's Creed. How's that working out for you?
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