Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Update on my election predictions

So this morning I was reviewing my predictions from last night, and I noticed I'd failed to count RI (4), HI (4), and Alaska (3). Oops. I would have but RI and HI in Obama's column and Alaska in McCain's (all no-brainers). So the electoral college count should have read 354-184.

But even I mis-underestimated Obama's performance. Instead, he pulled out a win with 364-174 votes... AMAZING. I had called Arizona for Obama and Virginia and New Mexico for McCain, and got those three wrong. Otherwise I was spot on. =D Go me!

However, one place I was incredibly wrong was on Prop 8. :( As of now it's winning. HOWEVER. According to the No On 8 website, there are something like 3 to 4 million outstanding absentee and provisional ballots yet to be tallied. The margin between yes and no right now is about 400,000 votes. So it's entirely possible that it could still fail. That said, I was tracking the results last night and it was pretty consistently 53/47 in favor. So unless the absentee votes are overwhelmingly liberal-leaning (very possible, but not guaranteed), Prop 8 could still pass. Blech.

No comments: